tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-47867800384631983182024-03-04T21:30:58.721-08:00Politics and Project ManagersJames Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.comBlogger104125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-80148640615283783652015-08-20T15:36:00.002-07:002015-08-20T15:36:46.226-07:00Amazon: Rank and Yank and how to destroy a teamThis week we have seen a lot of discussion arising from a New York Times article about the work practices at Amazon's corporate headquarters. I, like you, have no information about the truth or otherwise of the statements made in the article. Allegations that have been rebuffed by the CEO saying it didn't reflect the company he knew, or words to that effect. But he would say that wouldn't he, if only because the company and its policies do look different when you're the CEO rather than one of the worker bees. After all if you have a net worth of $49B then you have a totally different perspective than the rest of us on a whole range of things.<br />
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One of practices at Amazon that does not appear to be in dispute is their policy of forcing managers to annually rank their workers and to fire the lowest rated ones. The is called Rank them and then Yank them out of the company, shortened to Rank and Yank. They are not the only company that uses this approach to managing their "talent". Most consultancies have similar systems, always striving to have only "A team" workers in their companies, they call it Promote up or Manage out. They refuse to recognize that type 'A' personalities are frequently not good team players. In fact quite a few of them have wrecked more teams than improved them. Plus type 'A's' do not play well with each other. Too many ego's in a room is a recipe for poor cooperation and performance.<br />
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Rank and Yank most certainly doesn't work that well in multidisciplinary teams. If you have team of ten and each has an individual skill set then ranking their performance is highly subjective and firing your only UI developer will not help performance in the short run, given the time needed to recruit and train a replacement.<br />
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Team morale, which is a key factor in high performing groups, will also diminish, well respected workers getting fired does not encourage the others, instead it makes them anxious and less inclined to share key information. Where knowledge is not just power, but the key to survival, why would you share knowledge with someone that might result in them being ranked higher than you and thereby getting you sacked? If you're smart you don't.<br />
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Rank and Yank is just another glossy facade placed on the ugly reality of Social Darwinism, or survival of the fittest and the devil take the hindmost. There's a reason why only 63% of employees would recommend working there to a friend!<br />
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For a PM this sort of work environment is very challenging. You need to be leading a well motivated team to be successful and when that ideal is undermined by the company culture then you have an almost impossible task. You are bound to fail eventually and you will be fired! So either cut your losses or, better still, don't work for a Rank and Yank firm in the first place.James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-67098911371633644832015-05-29T11:11:00.000-07:002015-05-29T11:11:10.547-07:00Discretion is the better part of a prosecution: Ask the Bankers<br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Those pesky little rascals, aka Bankers, have been at it again. In London a group of them are on trial for allegedly rigging the LIBOR interest rate market, that’s the interest rate upon which a large part of the finance industry uses to set their rates for credit card and car loans and the like. Also an elite group of international banks have been fined a total of $6B by various national regulators for rigging the foreign exchange market, this is not allegedly since they have admitted the crime, that’s a first. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">The level of malpractice is so widespread that these million and billion dollar fines are now common place. One bank, JP Morgan Chase, has agreed to pay around $27B in fines etc over the past two years. This is serious money, money taken directly from their shareholders, so much for increasing shareholder value!</span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">One of the recurring themes in all of the investigations is the number of times these sharp practices are uncovered through emails that detail not only the actions but the mind set of the conspirators; “Lets put some lipstick on this pig!” being one of the more memorable phrases. The arrogance of these correspondents is so large that they don’t appear to even consider that these messages will be seen by anyone outside of their close circle. That someday these inelegant phrases will see the light of day and that they will be asked to justify them. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">There is a saying, attributed to an old time Boston Politician, “Never write if you can speak, never speak if you can nod, never nod if you can wink”. To this has been added, by a NY State Prosecutor, the modern day admonition, “Never email”. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">This guidance should be used by all project managers in their correspondence. Not that I expect you’ll be involved in criminal activities. But we do discuss work and our work colleagues in emails. So we should NEVER write anything that we would be ashamed to defend to a person’s face. If you wouldn’t say it to a man’s face or in a public meeting then don’t put in a note. Also avoid adjectives, subjective judgements, and hyperbolic statements. An earthquake in Nepal is a disaster, a failed QA test is not. Let the facts speak for themselves and let the reader make her own judgement. Your emails may be more boring but you will be able defend everyone of them. </span></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: large;">Remember words are like bullets, once they are launched they can’t be recalled and you don’t always know where they will end up: Make discretion your watchword. </span></div>
James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-64347027905405440262015-05-11T15:01:00.000-07:002015-05-11T15:01:07.096-07:00Election Results and Polls: You ‘herd’ it here
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The British General Election has just finished and one of
the principal losers was the opinion polling industry. Yes, those people whose
projections politicians<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>invest such
faith in screwed up again. The polls had been showing that the two main
parties, Conservative and Labour, where basically tied, From these poll figures
the pundits, really the classic example of fools with tools, estimated that no
party would have an overall majority and that some form of cooperation with
other parties would be required in order to form a government. With both
parties having a credible chance of actually leading the next government. With Labour having a better chance, as they
would be leading the supposed anti-austerity majority.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Well the pollsters got it wrong. The Conservatives won a
slim majority and the Labour party had a horrible night, not least in their
previous Scottish strongholds. Scotland on election night resembled a pretty
gory episode of Game of Thrones, with long time favourites and strongmen dispatched
with brutal suddenness. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
But not all of the pollsters got it wrong one of them did
have a poll that reflected the actual result.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>And their case gives us an object lesson about filters and biases.
The pollsters, Survation, conducted a poll the day before the election and
their results were very close to the actual vote count for each party. However
they did not publish the results. Why? <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Well here are the actual words of their CEO:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 8.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<i><span style="color: #636363; mso-bidi-font-family: Times;">The results seemed so “out of line” with all the polling conducted
by ourselves and our peers – what poll commentators would term an “outlier” –
that I “chickened out” of publishing the figures – something I’m sure I’ll
always regret.<o:p></o:p></span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 8.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #636363; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">Survation fell foul of the bias that is “herd”
mentality; that behavior were by members of a group feel safer going along with
the thoughts and actions of their peers , the“ herd”, rather using their own
analysis. They would rather be wrong together than take the risk of being wrong
individually no matter what their evidence reveals.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Like lemmings they’d rather jump off the
cliff rather than be in the minority safe above ground. They don’t want to be
the child that exclaims that the Emperor has no clothes. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 8.0pt; mso-layout-grid-align: none; mso-pagination: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span style="color: #636363; mso-bidi-font-family: Times; mso-bidi-font-style: italic;">The lesson here for PM’s is that when we are in the
Orient stage of the OODA Loop we have to be careful of the biases that can
impinge on our analysis. And also we have to trust our methodology and have the
courage to call it as we see it. If the results appear to be an outlier then by all means check and double check but eventually you have to release them. Playing it safe by following the herd often isn’t right, just ask
the lemmings. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-34314445911204932492015-05-02T17:02:00.000-07:002015-05-02T17:02:10.877-07:00Managers: love them or hate them, the key is to survive them!<br />
<div class="Body">
Our bosses can be the bane of our lives, always judging,
demanding, worrying, and complaining. (Is there a class in management school
that covers worrying?) They are not genetic traits as there incidence crosses all
races, geographies, and genders, rather it's something they are burdened with
when they enter the hallowed halls of management.</div>
<div class="Body">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Project managers with impeccable records become, almost over
night people who can believe three stupid things before breakfast and repeat
them to their skeptical subordinates with a straight face. And that is just the
good promotions. It is not only cream that rises to the top. There is plenty of
crap that floats to the top and gets promoted. We all know of too many examples
to believe the bromide about living in a meritocracy. Too many Whiskey Tango
Foxtrot appointments with sides of "can you believe" and "what
were they thinking".<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Kings of old were anointed with holy oil, and given a crown, an
orb, and a scepter as a sign of their God given right to rule. The three wise
men brought with them Gold, Frankincense, and Myrrh. Maybe when as managers
they get their first briefcase, or their promotion letter, it's impregnated
with oils of paranoia, and they receive the gifts of gullibility, fear, and
stupidity. Whatever happens it is very potent. Snake venom is like herbal tea
in comparison. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Or maybe they are given rings and unbeknown to them those rings
are, in Lord of the Rings style, subservient to a master ring; a ring that <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>rules
them all<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span>
from the executive equivalent of Mordor! <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Whether we know what happened or how it was done we have to deal
with the jellyfish they have become. We have to make it work, or at least give
the impression that we are. Bosses need to be supported, but from a safe
distance. We don't want to go down with his ship when he fails. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Always be cultivating networks within and without of your
department or company. If you work remotely this takes more work than if you
are in a traditional office. For once the dreaded matrix management can help
since it requires you to report to a wider range of people, thereby forcing you to network.
Always have your manager as an element in the Observe and Orientate sectors of the OODA loop until it is time to Decide and Act. Just make sure that you don<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">’</span>t
swap a jellyfish for the incredible boneless wonder. You don't want to move from the frying pan to the fire!</div>
<div class="Body">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-13357385440469615502015-04-18T13:39:00.001-07:002015-04-18T13:39:50.533-07:00Models and Biases
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One of the abiding myths in economics is that there is such a
being as homo economicus, or a perfectly rational person when it comes to
making decisions. Now that myth has been undermined by the work of behavioral
economists, who have described a whole series of biases and proclivities that
control how we think and make decisions. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Their work has been used by the "big number" crunchers
to justify a process called business analytics; they claim that by using their
models we can avoid these biases and thereby reach a rational decision. Models
don't have emotions and they don<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">’</span>t have biases, they're inorganic so
they can't be swayed away from the facts. Sounds logical, right.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>However, who creates the models?<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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We fallible Homo sapiens create the models. us with all our pesky
biases and non-rational behaviors.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>People who build models do so with an end in mind. The model is built to
reproduce a process. It is created from a set of requirements. It is formed
from someone's belief in how a process works. That belief requires the creation
of assumptions that underlie the models design. We know that assumptions are
very susceptible to bias. <o:p></o:p></div>
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For example the financial models that were used in the mortgage
industry pre 2008 did not allow for a decrease in property values, the widely
held assumption was that property values always increase. Also the efficient
market theory, much touted by economists, and its models assumed, no, asserted
that the price of houses and shares was always right because the market
"knew" all the facts about an asset and would price it correctly. The
models did not, and still do not, allow for a price bubble. Can<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">’</span>t
happen, so in theory the worldwide real estate crash and the resultant
financial crisis shouldn<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">’</span>t have occurred, but it did. Oops. Guess the models are as
flawed as the people who build them!<o:p></o:p></div>
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We project managers should always be careful when we are told
that the <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>model<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span> or the <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>tool<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span> gives us a perfect answer. Unless we
know the assumptions that went into building the application we should never
take that statement on its face value. Do your own quick analysis to see if the
answer is realistic, trust but verify. All PM<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">’</span>s should construct a mental bullshit
detector. There<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">’</span>s never a shortage of BS, or people to spread it around!<o:p></o:p></div>
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<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-76977723712188730302015-04-13T14:43:00.000-07:002015-04-13T14:43:31.579-07:00Maps: The Big Picture and PM’s
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I have been on vacation in the UK, a big deal for someone who has
had a triple bypass, since it involved a nine hour trans Atlantic flight. Being
the recipient of a CABG has a way of moving your <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>bucket list<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span> from the status of
<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>I<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">’</span>ll
get around to it<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span> to <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>better get started, pronto<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span>.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
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Most of the week in London was spent "getting culture",
as I trailed my wife around the National Gallery, the V&A. Museum, the
Courtauld Gallery, both Tate museums- British and Modern -, and the Wallace
Collection: Lots of Gainsboroughs, Turners, Monets, Manets, plenty of
impressionists, classicists, modernists, with a smidgen of cartoonist. By the
end of the week I was in dire need of another<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span><span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">‘</span>ist<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">’</span>,
a chiropodist! <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
However I did manage to visit Prime Minister Winston Churchill's
war rooms under the UK treasury building: the place where he directed the
British war effort from 1940 until 1945. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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One of the key exhibits is a collection of map rooms that
Churchill ordered to be created showing the current worldwide deployment of
British forces. These maps were kept up to date, 24/7,throughout the war. Only
ceasing when the conflict finished in August 1945.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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At a glance the PM, other members of the war cabinet, and the
Chiefs of the Imperial General Staff, could see the current position of the war
in any theatre: Europe, Middle East, Far East, etc, For the British, along with
the Americans later on, were fighting a global war; the other participants were
not! So it was important that the leaders could see, and be reminded of, the
whole picture and not get sucked into concentrating upon one area, to the
detriment of the wider conflict.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
The lesson I drew from this museum is that every project manager
needs her map room, virtual or otherwise, where she regularly, daily or weekly,
looks at her project in total and resists the temptation to focus narrowly on
the crisis of the day. So that the important is not crowded out by the merely
urgent. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
The technique I use is to mind map (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_map">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_map</a>)
my project or projects and to review and update the diagrams at least every
week. At the end of the review I prepare an action list of project tasks that
need to be done in the next week. That way I minimize the chances of important
actions being overlooked. <o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-2368114233053799482015-04-09T10:27:00.000-07:002015-04-09T10:27:04.326-07:00Captain Picard and Blunders.<br />
<div class="Body">
In one of the Star Trek TV series the main protagonist is Captain
Picard and he has a phrase that he uses to indicate that he has made a
decision, the phrase is, <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>make it so Commander Riker<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span>.
So in episode after episode he listens to his subordinates as they come up with
highly complex solutions to the apparently intractable current dilemma.
Solutions involving tachyon beams, time shift distortions, black holes, phase
modulation, the face angle on a sand wedge (I made that up) are put forward and
in an instant Picard says, <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>make it so Commander Riker.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>And low and behold in a short amount of time
it<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">’</span>s
done, it works and we are on to the next episode.</div>
<div class="Body">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Now this is all great entertainment, unfortunately we have a
generation of decision makers who have a similar <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>make it so<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span> approach to policy
making. They dream up policy solutions to problems and then give them to
someone else to implement or not, as is usually the case.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Evidence to support my hypothesis can be found in an excellent
book - The Blunders of our Governments, by Anthony King & Ivor Crewe - on
project failures in the political realm. Failures that cost the British
taxpayer billions of pounds over a 30 year period. A period that covers
governments of all parties so political bias is not present; incompetence, as
most project managers know only too well, is not ideological. Ideology may
blinker people's thinking, but even if the policy is correct the application
may still yet be a disaster. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Nor is incompetence technologically based, many of the examples
where poorly conceived from the beginning, the technology just added to the
confusion, or in some cases the lack of practical knowledge of the technology
augmented the poor decision making. Nothing is so dangerous as a politician or
executive who is convinced that there is a "silver bullet" solution
to a complex problem.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
One of the key points of the book is the apparent dividing line
separating the policy makers from those who have to implement the policy;
between the thinkers and the doers. In many cases the policy makers failed, in
some cases deliberately, to consult the people with practical experience of the
processes to be changed or "improved". This failure to consult
resulted in the setting of arbitrary deadlines, which often had more to do with
meeting political timescales or personal agendas than with how long the work
would take. This of course is not limited to the public sector the private
sector follows the same pathology. The problem is with the policy maker mind
set and the divide with operations rather than with public or private sector.
As the book illustrates the private sector companies and consultants called in
to work on these solutions failed to meet the level of basic competency. And we
are taking about household names in the consultancy field. No names, no
lawsuits, just read the book!<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
So how does a project manager address this divide? How do we try
to make the policy makers aware of the problems? Notice I use the word try, for
try is all we can do. In reality there is nothing so blind as a policy maker
with a dream. They can be zealots, who can see no other way than their way. No
other solution. No other timescale.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
The answer is through risk analysis. Use your knowledge and the
experience of subject matter experts to detail the implications of various
decisions. Make sure the findings of the risk analysis are circulated widely.
Not just to the immediate stakeholders but all parties with an interest in the policy.
In some of the cases quoted in the book key politicians were not aware of the
implications of the changes and had they been aware they may have prevented the
fiascos. The concept of unintended consequences is very relevant in all major
organizations. Decisions have knock on effects that adversely impact other
parts of the system, so the wider the consultation the better the chances of
minimizing them. In real life <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>make so<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span> rarely makes anything other than a
mess.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-80919584426327805442015-01-17T11:29:00.001-08:002015-01-17T11:29:55.302-08:00King’s Cross and Paddington can’t Bear it!<br />
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Generally I comment on the failings of the IT and Financial industries when highlighting project management failings. However this time I’ll use a more traditional industry as an example that project failings are almost universal. It not just the boys using bits and bytes that can screw up, the guys using nuts and bolts are also fallible. </span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Over this Christmas holiday period the UK’s Network Rail organization, they are responsible for the rail infrastructure: signals, tracks, overhead power lines, etc, planned to carry out major maintenance work on the main line running from London up the east coast to Scotland. With the main work taking place just north of London. The main rail terminus for this line is King’s Cross station. In addition Paddington station was also seriously affected.(Which lends its self to the slightly humorous title of this piece.) <span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span><br /></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px;">
<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The entire exercise was due to be completed on the two public holidays - Christmas Day and Boxing Day - which traditionally have a much reduced volume of traffic, with normal service resuming on December 27th, which is a very heavy travel day with people returning home from the holidays. Despite the efforts of 11,000 workers the work ran past the scheduled completion time, not by hours but by days. The outcome was the closure of Kings Cross station because trains couldn’t get in, and also Finsbury Park station because it couldn’t handle the mass of additional passengers sent its way by the King’s Cross closure. You know things are bad when the police close a station because of overcrowding. </span></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span><br /></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px;">
<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Currently the executives of Network Rail have not declared what caused them to miss their completion times and dates. As with all these events rumors circulate as to the cause, but early excuses are usually wrong so I’ll wait for the alibis to be prepared and then the outcome of the cross examination when the whistle blowers undermine them. </span></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span><br /></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px;">
<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">What we can opine is that somewhere in this farrago there will be a series of estimates that have very rosy colored assumptions and happy path timings. Best case scenarios will have been run and selected. Project friction will not have been considered and confident projections will have triumphed, and the higher up the chain they went the more confident they became. </span></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span><br /></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px;">
<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">When you deploy 11,000 people it takes serious planning errors to miss your completion date by twice the scheduled time. A project of this size will - should - have had a lot of planning effort put into it. So there’s no excuse, absent a natural disaster, for getting it so wrong. Lots of qualified project managers and executives will have participated in this work and lots of project plans will have been created, reviewed, revised and approved. So not a great advertisement for our profession or methodology. This waterfall has turned into a deluge. </span></span></div>
James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-55473225347482764662014-12-20T17:58:00.000-08:002014-12-20T17:58:00.388-08:00Sony hack and Risk Management.<br />
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The hacking of Sony pictures computer systems is only the latest of a long series of hacking attacks on commercial and government systems. This one became “big” news because it resulted in the release of derogatory comments about celebrities and culminated in the withdrawal of a movie because of threats to cinema chains. </span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">What has been overlooked in all of the public furore about who the hackers actually were, who slagged who off, and the cancellation of the film’s launch, is the reported poor state of Sony’s computer systems security. Some 3 years ago hackers gained access to the accounts of 77 million paying users of their Play Station network. Improvements were promised. This year both their German and Brazilian networks have been penetrated. Also they allegedly stored all their key passwords in a file called, wait for it, “Passwords” - ‘oh deary me’ as my grandmother would have said - talk about making the hackers job easy! Computer security would appear to have been a low priority for someone at Sony. <span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Bad enough that sophisticated hackers should attack your system without you aiding and abetting their efforts with poor security.</span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span><br /></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px;">
<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The alarming fact is that Sony are probably no better or worse than most large companies. The lack of basic encryption, poor password standards, and lack of effective system monitoring are common place. Any decent risk plan should address hacking and have detailed actions of how the system is to be protected. </span></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px; min-height: 14.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"></span><br /></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px;">
<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;">I would not be surprised if somewhere in all of these corporations there are reports that show that these problems exist and also Potemkin spreadsheets that also show that there is no problem. No prizes for guessing which documents the Board has been seeing!</span></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px;">
<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div style="font: 12.0px Helvetica; margin: 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px 0.0px;">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="letter-spacing: 0.0px;"><br /></span></div>
James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-42267629994311554592014-12-12T18:29:00.001-08:002014-12-12T18:29:33.473-08:00Risk and its consequences<br />
<div class="Body">
This week I came across two examples of risk. One avoidable, one
happenstance.</div>
<div class="Body">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
My wife is a ceramic artist and she shares studio space in an old
factory building. This week she received the news that the water main supplying
the sprinkler system had burst and flooded her studio to a depth of thirteen
inches. Partially submerging her potters wheel and her electric kiln. To
compound her misfortune she'd left her laptop on the floor, only the third time
she'd left it in the studio. As I write we are drying it out: more in hope than
expectation. The rupture of the main and the damage to the laptop come under
the heading of happenstance or sh*t happens. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
The second incident was reported in the UK and it concerned the
computer system failure of the Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS). This failure
resulted in some of its customers being unable to gain access to their accounts
for up to three weeks. This week the bank was fined $90M by the UK's financial
regulator. This fine was in addition to the $112M it paid out in compensation
to bank customers and $168M cost of staff overtime to fix the problems. All
told the error cost the bank $1.2B! <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
The reported cause of the error was deemed to be the
incompatibility of their old, as in ancient, computer code and their new
mainframes, an issue that had apparently been highlighted in a previous audit
report but not fully addressed. Now this organization has an annual IT budget
of $1B. So money wasn<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">’</span>t necessarily the prime cause, but poor risk assessment surely
was. This incident definitely comes under the heading of avoidable. The
worrying thing is that there are an awful lot of corporations who are in the
same boat, with old code and a lack of willingness to fix it. Tick Tock, Tick
Tock, goes the time bomb.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-71214425617540390532014-11-06T17:20:00.001-08:002014-11-06T17:28:08.196-08:00Project Managers and the Goldfish Syndrome<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=4786780038463198318" name="There_is_a"><span style="font-family: Arial;">There</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial;"> is
an analogy that uses the supposed fact that Goldfish have such a limited
short-term memory that for them every trip around their bowl is a new
experience. Nothing from the previous short trip is remembered. This analogy
can be used for certain sectors of the project management profession: where
many projects are a trip around the fish bowl. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
</span><br />
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial;">This
doesn’t apply to projects in the construction and manufacturing industries
where they are using known methods and technologies. Most skyscrapers and bridges
follow known techniques and industry standards are widely accepted. Only when
they start using new technologies are the benefits of the familiar reduced. The
vast majority of construction projects are finished, not always on time or
budget but they are completed. Our cities are not riddled with partially built
structures. Only the collapse of the developer’s finances, as in 2008/9, stops
the work once it is started.</span></div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">Not
so in the software world where the analogy is very apposite. Many projects are
launched on the expectation of fair winds and favorable tides and with shifting
requirements. They are always the children of the victory of hope over
experience. The result is a computer landscape littered with abandoned
projects. The largest consultancy companies all have multiple failed mega
projects on their resumes. But does it stop them and their clients from
repeating the same mistakes again? No it doesn’t. The UK Health Service has had
a number of mega projects aimed at consolidation patient records, all failed
with huge amounts of sunk costs written off. In fact the only thing that has
improved on these projects is the size of the losses. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">No
management discipline can consider itself to be professional when, in
significant sectors, the Goldfish syndrome afflicts its practitioners.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<!--EndFragment--></span></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-41745994162858486742014-10-05T14:10:00.000-07:002014-10-06T11:38:36.184-07:00Old economic paradigms don't die, or fade away; their believers get awards.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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In the past few months the Institute of Economic Affairs in the UK
announced it's annual award to the person who made great contributions to free
enterprise during their working life. The recipient of this honour was Viscount
Ridley, the Brits do love a Lord, who's main claim to notoriety in the UK was
to be Chairman of The Northern Rock Bank, an institution that had existed since
1850. It started life has a building society and converted to a bank in 1997,
following the trend advocated by the IEA and Thatcherite economic theology. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
As a bank it adopted the prevailing economic ideology, and then some, and followed a highly risky loan strategy, which
included giving borrowers mortgages of up to 125% of their properties value! The
end result was that in 2007 it suffered the first run on a British bank in 150
years. It had customers lining up outside it branches demanding their money
back! Over a few days they had to pay out $3B. But it wasn't enough and the
Bank had to be nationalized at a cost of $40B to the UK taxpayer. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Yet the man who presided over this debacle, the 5th Viscount
Ridley, instead of facing any sanctions or censure ends up, seven years later, being given an award for economic achievement! A decision that would beggar's
belief in rational world. Lose billions and get an award.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> The epitome of failing upwards.</span><o:p></o:p><br />
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<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">So what does this mean in the project management world? We have an
entrenched paradigm that is waterfall, and we have contending methods such as
Critical Chain (which is a variation of waterfall) and Agile. Like the failed <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>efficient
market<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span>
model in conventional economic theory education, waterfall is considered to be
mandatory on all project courses, especially for beginners. So any <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>new
or improved<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span> PM model has to overthrow decades of conditioning and also to
get the PM establishment to demote waterfall to a subset of models that only
deal with well established technologies and methods. As the financial example
above indicates getting any establishment to change is difficult even when the
evidence of failure is over whelming.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
<!--EndFragment--></span></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-45921373373239261752014-09-23T15:28:00.000-07:002014-09-23T15:35:49.160-07:00OODA Loop and Six Honest Working men.<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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The famous British writer Rudyard Kipling wrote that in
carrying out his work he used “six honest working men”: Who, What, When, Why,
Where, and How. By asking these questions he could write an article for a
newspaper, a poem, a story. They were the starting point for his exploration of
a subject.</div>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
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Similarly they should be the foundation for all project
managers combating bias and the tendency to believe that “What you see is all
there is” (WYSIATI). Forcing yourself to ask these six questions when you reach
the Decide portion of the Observe, Orient, Decide, Act (OODA) loop will
prevent you from rushing to a premature conclusion because your mind’s system 1
(the reptilian part) overrides your lazy system 2 (the rational analytical part).<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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Certainly after every new piece of information you should
ask yourself “so what?” What does this piece of information mean? What is its
impact on the current situation? What should I do with it? And so on with the
other “honest working men”. It doesn’t mean you’ll always come to the right
conclusion, but you are certainly more likely to avoid a rushed one. <o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-74711748794433399012014-09-01T17:29:00.001-07:002014-09-01T17:29:57.470-07:00Conclusions, WYSIATI, and the OODA loop.
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<br />
<div class="Body">
In his book 'Thinking: fast and slow' Daniel Kahneman introduces
the concept that our brains have two separate systems, the first one is fast
thinking and is what we use to recognize danger and decide whether to fight or
flee, the second one is slow and is what we use to analyze complex situations:
buying a car or a house. The problem is that system 1, to use Kahneman's
terminology, is always on and always making judgments, jumping to conclusions
on the merest amount of evidence. It doesn't evaluate the quantity or quality
of the evidence, it just takes what it has and comes up with a conclusion. It
doesn't search our memory for additional facts that might contradict or even
confirm its conclusions. It acts as if 'What you see is all there is,' or
WYSIATI. Unless we make a decision to engage system 2 then we are at the mercy of
system 1.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
This genetic predisposition has profound implications for the
Orient phase of the OODA loop. Left unchecked system 1 can open the door to all
kinds of filters and biases that will screw up our evaluation of a given
situation. Causing us to make poor decisions. We need to discipline ourselves
to always question what our first reaction to information is. Ask ourselves is
this all the information there is? What is the quality of this data? Are there
other facts available to help me to better analyze this situation? It takes
time and effort but it is what a master politician or strategist does. <o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-42171596226598286742014-08-13T17:03:00.002-07:002014-08-13T17:03:55.561-07:00PM Education and Briers law:
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<br />
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A good friend of mine on hearing me utter for the umpteenth
time my advice that for projects: “its never too early to start failing”
sarcastically named it Briers Law. Well what applies to projects also applies
to the profession and particularly its education courses. The main examples are
the Introduction to Project Management ones given to executives and consultants,
usually the only course on Project Management that they ever take. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
These courses are specifically designed to give their attendees
a simplified explanation of what happens on a project. In fact in many cases
the courses are not merely simplified they are made simple, as in Project Management
for Morons! <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The attention challenged executives and consultants in fact
demand short, the shorter the better, simplistic courses because they don’t
have the time to spend on a detailed course. In other words they don’t want to
be educated, never mind seek a deep understanding of the process. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
During the simplification of course material all the
uncertainty associated with projects is swept under the carpet. Complexity is
expunged from the process and the sequential process of waterfall is explained
in terms an average eight year old could understand. The aim is not to create a
sense of unease in the attendees by exposing them to the realities of life, but
rather to give them a sense of comfort that project management is not that
difficult. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
From this education they take away the certainty that
definite, deterministic end dates can be derived and managed to, irrespective
of project scope and complexity. And that a project budget can likewise have a
definite value that can be baked into company financial plans with all the
permanence of a tombstone carving. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
So from the very start of our project management education curriculum
we open up the possibility that some, maybe many, of our executive students gain
incorrect expectations about what they can expect from project management
processes. And in doing so make life very difficult project managers who work
with them. Truly a fine example of Briers Law: It’s never too soon to start
failing.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-81025927637015771842014-08-04T12:26:00.000-07:002014-08-04T12:26:52.259-07:00Project Measurements: Standard versus Specific<br />
<div class="Body">
A common question for all project managers is:<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>"Am I measuring the right things in
order to gauge my project's health?" We all know about earned value, burn
rate, project velocity, issue resolution, days outstanding on bugs, but these
are general terms that can be applied to any project. In many cases they may
mislead you as to your projects progress, earned value certainly can hide
issues until it's too late for the project to recover.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="Body">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
The dangers of only relying on a standard set of measurements
were brought home to me during my recent cardiac experience. During my visit to
the Emergency Room the medical staff measured my: pulse, blood pressure, and
took snapshots of my EKG readings. All were very good, all in the range for an
excellent heart condition. In fact at one stage my wife and I were getting concerned
that they would say there was nothing to worry about! <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
However the medical staff was not treating me as someone who needed
to have his heart monitored, they were treating someone complaining of medical
problems. So they also ran specific tests that would investigate the reported
symptoms, one of which was a blood enzyme test that indicated that I had in
deed had a heart attack. Good for me that they did, otherwise I wouldn't be
writing this entry.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
So what as this to do with projects? The answer is quite a lot.
You can't treat all projects as being the identical and run them just using a
set of standard metrics and expect everything to turn out fine every time. You
have to be listening to the project team members, to be monitoring the
interfaces with other work groups, to be using situational awareness, to be
checking the symptoms of your project's health. The standard metrics are the
minimum you need to use, not the only metrics. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
So listen to your team, look for abnormal items and that way you
end up paying for a cardiac surgeon rather than an undertaker. They cost about the same but only one has an upside to their profession!<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-21662869871761039692014-07-21T15:27:00.002-07:002014-07-21T15:27:29.990-07:00Agile, Cabbages, and Cardiologists.
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Apologies for
the long interval between postings, at the end of May I went on vacation to
Hawaii. Just at the end of the second week I became, in medical slang, a CABG,
no not the vegetable, I was the recipient of a cardiac arterial bypass graft,
three of them to be precise. Some end to a vacation!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">One of the
interesting events during my medical treatment occurred on the morning of the
actual operation. I was literally wheeled into the operating theatre, moved to
the operating table, surrounded by a surgical team all bustling about their
duties when all of a sudden the cardiologist calls "Time Out". At
which the entire surgical team paused and was asked to give details of what
they knew about the operation and raised any questions they might have. So I
knew that it was me they believed they where operating on and what they were
going to do to me. So it was a "Scrum Meeting", Needless to say I was
paying close attention to what everyone was saying. They even asked me if I had
anything to say. Silently I hoped that they were all on their “A” game.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
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<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My second thought was that I can't get away
from project management even in extremis!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Needless to say
it was successful, so chalk it up to another success for Agile practices. </span><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<!--EndFragment--><br />
James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-87823290676123023962014-05-23T13:03:00.000-07:002014-05-23T13:03:34.225-07:00The Project Manager as a Conductor<br />
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One of the favorite analogies in project management says that you can consider a project as a piece of music and the project team as a group of musicians: Band, Orchestra, Ensemble,etc. That makes the Project Manager the Conductor or Leader, the person responsible for making the group play and the music to flow. At it’s best the music is transcendent, at its worst it is a cacophony of discordant notes: Beethoven or Schoenberg, Teamwork or muddle. </div>
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The important principle is that members of the group have to understand their role and the impact it has on the performance of the team. Critically the smaller the team the greater the impact of each role. A bum note in a sweeping orchestral movement will be lost, the same error in a string quartet is calamitous. However in a small group feedback on a performance is quick. The error and its creator are obvious to everyone, including them. In a large group then people can deny error and pass it off to another player. So the second violins as a section “carry the can” rather than an individual violinist.</div>
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Where the analogy breaks down is in the world of matrix management of resources. Imagine an orchestra in which every section is answerable to a different conductor as well as the person who is standing on the podium in the spotlight. And at random periods during the performance the section conductor is giving different advice on how to play the piece, or worse yanking the player off the stage to play for another group. </div>
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Matrix management manifestly will not work for an orchestra, and it often doesn’t work for projects. Pity too many managements don’t realize that fact!</div>
James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-33775765847124506022014-05-11T12:52:00.000-07:002014-05-11T12:52:51.013-07:00Project management, software development, and executive management- an intellectual void
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The software industry has been in existence for around 60 years.
That was when the foundational ideas of Alan Turing and the genius of John von
Neumann were turned into practical usage. Project management has been around
for millennia, the Pyramids didn't build themselves. But in it's modern
recognition as a separate profession it is also about the same age. Similarly
modern business management became a teachable subject around the same time. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
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Yet the three practices do not co-exist in harmony. You would think
that after all this time that they would have worked out how to relate to one
another, understand each other's needs, and develop common series of practices:
Construction has, movie production has, automobile manufacture has. Software?
Not really.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Software has developed many astounding applications and enabled
devices that where in the realm of SciFi a decade or so ago. Yet the number of
projects, large and small, that fail is high. The UK has been trying to create
an integrated system for it's healthcare system for decades. Best minds
employed, big budgets, etc and it's been one failure after another. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
You could argue that it is only the big complex systems that
fail, but ask any internal IT department about the success rate of their
projects and you'll get a deluge of horror stories. A lot of companies have
trouble consistently delivering $50K projects on time and on budget. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Even if the project and software teams have a methodology they
have a hard time of explaining their process to their business management.
Software projects may be moving to a more flexible iterative process and yet
their executive management is still wedded to point in time solutions.
"How are you tracking to your milestones?", is a common question.
Explanations of the new approach elicit nods of understanding, followed by a repeat of the same question. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Executives are not educated to handle uncertainty. They are
trained to expect firm dates and to track to them. Their "profession"
lacks the intellectual honesty to admit that they cannot predict outcomes. They
expect, no demand, definite dates and expect everyone to stand by their initial
estimates, no matter how circumstances change. They are in a state of
intellectual denial, in an intellectual void.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-50573425482616657292014-03-30T14:34:00.001-07:002014-03-30T14:34:36.496-07:00Team Morale is Key
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<br />
<br />
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A key measure of a team’s health is the state of its morale.
High performance groups typically show a good level of social cohesiveness and
tolerance. It doesn’t mean that they are free from disagreement, what they are
free from is acrimony. Constructive argument is good, destructive bickering is
bad. So one of the tasks of any management is to maintain the morale of its
workforce.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
At the project level it means constantly assessing the level
of cooperation within the team. Low levels of cooperation are an indicator of
poor teamwork and morale. It also involves making every member of your team feel
that their contributions are essential and that they are regarded has valued
members of it.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The wide spread practice of forcing performance ratings that
follow a normal distribution on a team is counter productive to maintaining
good morale. It is hard to think of a more destructive action than forcing
managers to rank their team within a prescriptive range. It doesn’t take long
for people who have been designated as a poor performer to start acting like one.
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Maintaining morale is a key management function, it cannot
be delegated to some other body. One sign that a management team has run out of
ideas is when they create a Morale Committee consisting of members of their
workforce. Basically they are saying we know your morale is bad, so fix it! So
if your company creates one then it’s time to reconsider your decision to stay
there. Bad management cannot be fixed from within.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-39128806845189691092014-03-18T18:08:00.000-07:002014-03-18T18:08:02.055-07:00Software management: Waterfall, Agile, and Kuhn<br />
<div class="Body">
In 1962 Thomas Kuhn wrote his renowned book 'The Structure of Scientific Revolutions' which among other things introduced us to the
"paradigm shift", a hackneyed phrase much beloved by dull managements
these days, but a significant new theme at the time.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></div>
<div class="Body">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Also in the book was the concept that the adherents of the old
way of looking at the world, the old paradigm, could not, with their previous
training and experience, understand the new way of looking at the world. This
inability to comprehend he termed as incommensurable, a clumsy word hardly
surprising it lost out to paradigm. One of the books findings was that the
adherents of the old paradigm are not so much converted to the new, but rather
they are submerged by it. They and their views die out. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
So what has this to do with software management? A great deal is
the answer. Currently we have a major debate within the software project world
about whether we should use waterfall or agile planning and development
methods. Much ink has been spilt, and many strong positions taken. Definitely
there is a great deal of incommensurabling going on and the triumph of one over
the other is not on the horizon, far from it.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
The problem for we project managers is that we are often called
upon to bridge the gap. To be translators at best, peace makers at worst,
between the disputing theologians. In addition we also have to communicate our
schedules to senior managers who are steeped in the point value world.
"Give me a date when this will finish and the next phase will start"
is their usual response to scheduling questions. Iterative development with its
vagaries and imprecision is a foreign land to them. Oh, they get the concepts
of the method but they can't break free of the point value mind set. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
I had an example recently on a database project I'm managing. We
are using an iterative approach with scheduled releases of the database. The
later releases will be more a case of fine tuning the model rather than major
upgrades. The development, testing, and deployment will continue until the main
program is completed. The applications that will use the database understand
the approach and when they'll be able to use the new code for their development
effort. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
So far so good, the techies understand what's going on. Now we
come to the incommensurable part, the executives managing the entire program.
They want everything on one chart -as an aside I think PowerPoint has a lot to
answer for in the ongoing process of dumbing down corporate executives -
everything has to have discrete start and end dates that line up with dependent
activities, they want waterfall.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>After
days of futile discussion, basically talking past each other, I gave them a
waterfall version. As they say in the espionage world it was a convenient
fiction, all that was missing was the traditional starting and finishing
phrases of children's fairy tales. Whether they'll all live happily ever after
is debatable, it is a software project after all.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
The political learning point of this example is that you need to
understand the requirements of all of your audiences and accommodate them as
well as you can. Leave them comfortable with their illusions while you manage
your project in the most effective manner: Duplicitous yes, politic absolutely!<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-58262766855615336312014-03-10T20:11:00.001-07:002014-03-10T20:11:28.480-07:00Self sabotage and the OODA loop
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<!--StartFragment-->
<br />
<br />
<div class="Body">
I never underestimate the capability of executives to sabotage
their own plans in the rush to meet some arbitrary financial target. Their
inability to think holistically is systemic, if not genetic. If they used the
OODA loop they might avoid it.</div>
<div class="Body">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Two recent examples, one international in scope, the other more
mundane, will illustrate the propensity to self harm. In the UK the leading
supermarket chain declared a few years ago that it would use a profit margin of
5.6% as it's guide for all company planning and that it would coordinate all
it's activities to maintain this high margin. The value was sacrosanct, had to
be met, no matter what.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Well, why they were preoccupied with meeting and maintaining this
target they took their collective eye off the market. In OODA terms they
stopped observing. So when the market changed as the economic austerity caused
by the Great Banker Cock Up of the mid 2000's made shoppers both more frugal
and discerning they failed to orient to the new reality. Very difficult to
re-orient the business if you don't pay attention to changing conditions
because you are focused, anchored as it were, on a meaningless target. Like a sailor
following the North Star and not looking out for reefs and rocks.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
This fixation resulted in them losing market share to low cost
provider at frugal end of their customer spectrum and to quality suppliers at
the discerning end of their customers. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
The second example is in the area of American cost cutting. In
many companies the start of the new financial year heralds the season of the
annual resource action - euphemism for job cuts. Well in this company the IT
department was targeted for some blood letting. At the time they were in the
midst of an internal audit, a big deal in their company. The auditors had
stipulated that the department must use a specific tool to ensure uniformity of
process, thereby making the auditors life easier.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
So it was somewhat surprising, but knowing the managers not
shocking, when they fired the only guys who knew how to use the tool. So the audit came to a screeching halt and a a panic of the "hair on fire"
type ensued. Talk about not thinking things through, of not orienting correctly
for the given situation. They could have kept the guys on until the audit was
over, or kept one of them. Obviously no holistic thinking taking place.
Totally fixated on reducing head count by a certain date and oblivious to the
consequences.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
In both cases lack of observing and orienting skills led to self
sabotage. Bad enough when people are working against you, but it is really
takes the biscuit when you do it to yourself. <o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-23746946093116771972014-03-04T19:54:00.004-08:002014-03-04T19:54:58.772-08:00Interfaces and interlocks<br />
<div class="Body">
Whenever a project relies upon other projects to provide key
inputs, so called dependencies, the risk goes up. When the dependency is a
clear one it is usually well managed. The dependent project has a very keen interest
in it being so. But where the dependency is more opaque, or an interim solution
is required, things can get overlooked or a complacent attitude prevails. In
both cases the problems are discovered late and the dependent project is thrown
into a panic.</div>
<div class="Body">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
I'm currently working on a project that is part of a much larger
program, with numerous work streams involving infrastructure, networking,
database design, and application development. One of the key activities
involves transmitting a large amount of data for testing purposes from a
mainframe site to server farm for database development, I'm managing the
database part. The files are large and in production will be carried over a
dedicated network. The network has been delayed and won't be available for the
early part of the development effort. So an alternative transmission connection
was required. This is when the chances of the wheels coming off started to
increase, because once the network delay was identified and the question of
transmission was raised the answer was; don't worry we'll move it using a
virtual private network (VPN), no problem. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
The moment this glib statement was made then this cynical PM
immediately went on red alert. Why? Because passed experience with this company
warned me that they were grossly underestimating the task and ignoring firewall
permissions, server builds and authorities, and bandwidth. My tech team where
equally blas<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS";">é</span>, relying on
the fact that they had stipulated that they need the files by X date and that
it was other peoples job to deliver them. I didn't share this sanguine
attitude. I started badgering everyone in the whole transmission chain to give
me the details of who was doing what, and when it would be done. Needless to
say they all had other more pressing problems and without my push we'd never
had made the date. Even so it was touch and go.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Interfaces between projects and programs are always a problem.
You have to identify them, even if they are not obvious, then interlock with
their managers, and constantly manage that interlock. People can forget their
commitments: don't let them.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-87204824228332551132014-02-23T19:36:00.000-08:002014-02-23T19:36:53.118-08:00It's all about priorities, stupid!
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<br />
<div class="Body">
Over previous posts I've bemoaned the incapacity of executives to
prioritize projects. Too often like small children in the proverbial candy
store they want it all. They are great at willing the ends, but lousy at providing
the means. When tasked about this the usual response is to trot out glib
sayings: be creative, think outside the box, work smarter not harder. All of
which carry the sub-text of: "don't bother me with details that's what I
hired you for."<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Recently a project I'm working on was hit a by a resources
conflict with another pressing project. In all truth the other project had a
more compelling case in the short term. What was required was a realization
that both could not be delivered has scheduled and that my project's schedule
needed to be re-planned. Simple really.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>Not so fast my logical project manager,<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span>
was the reply. <span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">“</span>We need your project to finish on time. Just tell us what
you need to manage this problem and we'll make it happen. Give us the information
and we'll escalate with senior management.<span style="font-family: "Arial Unicode MS"; mso-ascii-font-family: Helvetica;">”</span> Sounded promising.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
Well five weeks passed and nothing has happened. We are now at a
point where action will be futile. The damage is done and can't be undone. The
schedule has slipped but in an uncontrolled manner, with lots of confusion
interspersed with bouts of frustration. We can manage most things, but
stupidity can only be endured.<o:p></o:p></div>
<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4786780038463198318.post-28905230656828052362014-02-08T18:22:00.001-08:002014-02-08T18:22:48.240-08:00Experience of working has a team matters more than the sum of the parts.
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The longest battle of the Second World War was the Battle of the
Atlantic. It lasted from September 1939 until May 1945, thousands of seamen
died and millions of tons of shipping was sunk. The combat between the allied
convoys and the U-boats ebbed and flowed, with first one side on top and then
the other. Technology and tactics evolved at a startling rate, British
innovation and American manufacturing capacity ultimately triumphed, but not
without many travails and setbacks.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
One of the key findings that the navies discovered was that if a
convoy escort group - usually four to six warships - had worked together
previously the lower the loss rate of merchantmen from the convoy. Even escort
groups comprising ships from different navies performed significantly better than
those that had ships from the same navy. It was the experience of working
together that was important not the common tradition or language. </div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
This was such
a key factor that the British Admiralty insisted that all escort groups
undertake a realistic three day training exercise before every convoy sailing from
British ports, even if they had worked together before.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
So what does this mean from a project viewpoint? Well it confirms
what last blog stressed; that teams are better than ad hoc groupings
cobbled together under the matrix management rubric. That time spent by the
team familiarizing themselves with the task and how it will be addressed before
the project starts is time well spent. A lot of projects do have a Kick Off
event, these are only valuable if they address the launch of the project and
who's doing what etc. However some are just glorified management ego trips -
'look at how smart we are to have got this project approved. Now don't you
workers go and screw it up, we'll be watching!' is their tone.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
<br /></div>
<div class="Body">
So get your project's shake down cruise - naval term - done as
soon as possible and if you can't have the same team always try to have a
comprehensive launch event and activities. Remember Briers law: it is never to
soon to start failing!<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="Body">
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<!--EndFragment-->James Briershttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15366399175395546579noreply@blogger.com0